Over the holiday season we here at BTL have been faced with many annoying conversations with moderate friends and family about the issue of “electability,” that ever elusive trait. These discussions were always specifically related to whether or not Bernie Sanders is electable. Shocker: none of them think he is.
We probably should have anticipated this - around this time in every election cycle, voters seem to get obsessively wrapped up in identifying the presidential candidate that exudes this poorly-defined concept and, unfortunately, almost nobody has a single clue as to what being electable actually means. As a result, we’ve decided to make the electability case for Sanders in a simple way. A way that way you, dear readers, can reference when having the same conversations in your daily lives with that lame friend of yours who thinks that everything would be great if we could only just run Al Gore or John Kerry again.
(Before we begin, we admit that, while we can think of a million reasons to vote for Sanders beyond “electibility,” insisting to a moderate voter that “Sanders will drive turn-out,” doesn’t seem to be a winning argument. In this piece, we’re sticking to facts. Cold, hard, undeniable facts that not even the Joe Biden supporter in your life can deny.)
On Creating a Coalition:
One thing we hear a lot in the debates is an argument about who can best put together a winning coalition. The Obama coalition, for example. The diverse coalition of both men and women, a high turnout from people of color, etc…
Can Sanders do this? Let’s go to the numbers.
First up? In the latest poll from NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist, Sanders is WINNING with non-whites - 29% to 26% for Biden.
If that surprised you, then it will certainly surprise all of your establishment friends. But okay, so what if he’s winning with non-whites. Obviously he doesn’t do that well with women because of all the “Bernie Bros”, right? WRONG.
A recent study from the economist found that women under 45 make up a larger share of Bernie Sanders’ base than do men in their same age group. By most accounts, women under 45 seem to be the biggest single base that Sanders has.
And while Sanders may not currently be winning with older folks, there’s good reason to believe that once his message gets to them (which happens largely through TV commercials with this demographic) they’ll certainly be in favor of the expansion of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and that his Medicare-for-All plan covers both long term care and vision/dental. Also, he’s an old person himself, which probably won’t hurt his cause with this group.
On Winning in Vermont:
Another thing we’ve heard a lot, specifically from Amy Klobuchar, is that she can win in a purple state. Pete Buttigieg has also talked a lot about winning in “Mike Pence’s Indiana” (more on that later).
But guess what? Did you know that Vermont has a Republican Governor and a long history of Republicans winning state-wide elections? The sitting Republican Governor was elected in 2016, then re-elected in 2018 by a wider margin. Also in 2018, Sanders won 67% of the vote in his re-election bid in. That’s right, in 2018, many Vermonters voted for both a GOP governor, AND Bernie Sanders.
Also, here’s another surprising one! Vermont has 1 at-large house seat. (Cute.) When Bernie Sanders won that house seat in 1991, it had been in GOP control since 1961. Thats right. Vermont’s one House seat was held by a Republican for THIRTY YEARS until Sanders won it.
Surely that’s just a random coincidence though, right?
No. The swing was even more extreme when Sanders won his senate seat in 2007. At that point it had been in GOP control since...wait for it...THE WHIG PARTY HELD IT IN THE 1850’s. No, we are not making that up. (We are also not making up the name Solomon Foot, which was the name of that particular Whig party senator.)
A lot of focus has also been placed on winning in rural areas. Vermont’s population is approximately 62% rural, making it the SECOND most rural state. Compare that to Minnesota which is approximately 73% urban.
Yes, Bernie Sanders continues to be elected as a Democratic Socialist in a rural state that just recently re-elected their Republican governor.
And while we’re on the subject of winning state-wide, let’s go quickly back to Wine-Cave Pete. Buttigieg has indeed run state-wide once in “Mike Pence’s Indiana.” And...he got slaughtered. And not because he was gay, because he hadn’t yet come out at this point. Just because nobody voted for him. In his race for State Treasurer, he lost to known-deplorable Richard Mourdock by 25 points (62%-37%). (If you’re wondering whether this is the same Richard Mourdock who later ran for senate and lost because he said, "life is that gift from God that I think even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen," then you would be correct.)
On Winning in Obama/Obama/Trump Counties:
This is a big one. Democrats have been looking at the areas around the country that voted for Obama twice, then Trump in 2016. Much has been made about winning those areas back. Win back the Obama voters from Trump, and you win the election. Simple.
Well here’s something there’s been little reporting on: In these counties that Democrats love to focus on, Sanders is winning the fundraising battle - and it’s not close.
By September 2019, Sanders had pulled in 81,841 individual donations from 33,185 donors in these counties. That’s more than 3x any of the other major contenders (Biden, Warren or Buttigieg). Also, many of these counties are in those all important states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In two of those states, Wisconsin and Michigan, Sanders won in the 2016 primary.
Basically, no one is positioned better than Sanders to win back those coveted Obama/Obama/Trump voters in a general election. Not even Uncle Joe.
On Other Polling and Stats:
Perhaps the best way to see who might beat Trump is... to look at polling against Trump. Duh, right?
These polls look good for Sanders as well. He often polls as well if not better than the other Democratic candidates in head to head matchups against Trump. That list includes Joe Biden, who is somehow running an entire campaign based solely on the idea that he can beat Trump. (Is that claim based on...his two massively disastrous previous presidential runs? We’re not sure.)
Much was made of Trump’s massive fundraising haul in Q4. And while he outraised Sanders in pure dollars, Sanders is the ONLY candidate in the primary who has more actual donations than Trump. The massive grassroots support shows that his is the only campaign that can really challenge Trump’s fundraising prowess.
Oh, and Sanders has highest likability of any candidate in the primary. Yes, even though your lawyer friend and rich aunt and uncle don’t like him.
Don’t like Sanders? Don’t @ us. We didn’t invent the #votebluenomatterwho hashtag.